It's not 2009
Randy Eller -- Home Accents Today, 10/28/2010 3:23:57 AM
AS THE FOURTH QUARTER BEGINS, I find myself thinking back to the summer gift shows and a lot of the comments I heard.
There were of course, standouts (I was pleasantly surprised by the traffic at the New York Gift Show, for example), but for the most part people thought the traffic was a bit light, and I heard a lot of the usual talk from retailers that they were concerned about whether or not consumers would be spending well for the fall holidays.
Time for a big wakeup call! Ladies and Gentlemen, 2009 was, without question, the worst year I have seen in the 40 years I have been in this industry. It seemed that starting even on Jan. 1, 2009; everyone was in a state of shock. Everyone was worried; everyone was cutting costs; everyone was convinced throughout the year that it would be the holiday season that never was.
Yet magically, when retailers showed back up at the January 2010 gift shows, there were legendary stories being told. Lots more traffic in the stores than expected in November and December, and a lot more sales than anticipated had me hearing from many retailers that by January the shelves were empty - they had not bought enough product and had left money on the table.
If that's what happened in this industry during "the mother of all bad years," then how can we possibly believe that we will not have a great year this year? American consumers have always proven that no matter what is going on, they are going to enjoy their holidays, they are going to buy gifts and home accents as gifts, and they are NOT going to be denied the most wonderful time of the year for relationships between family and friends.
So, my first message here is that it is indeed not 2009, unless you act like it and are not prepared for the great business that is on the way.
Retailers, you need to learn a lesson from the stratification we are seeing within the wholesale businesses in the industry this year. I have wholesale clients who are up 25% to 50% this year. Why? Because they planned for it, they executed in their businesses to be able to handle it, and they expected it.
I hope every one of you read the magnificent article in the September issue of Home Accents Today about Doug and Susan Williams' great company, Kalalou. Doug Williams stated what is always obvious in every winner ... don't listen to the news, don't listen to the economists, follow your passion and run your business as if you will win.
Conversely, we are in the midst of a number of wholesalers being sold to larger ones at this point. "Consolidation" is the politically correct word for it.
What it really is, though, is the stronger players in the industry who have managed well through this recession now using this opportunity to strengthen their position in the marketplace. As the old saying goes, the strong get stronger, and stronger, and stronger.
Let's keep it simple. The people who made it through this, are succeeding now and even gaining market share in their businesses, are the ones who kept believing, kept creating new product, kept their sales engines humming, and kept providing superior customer service.
The lessons are so obvious that the best thing you can do right now is apply them to your store. Are you really ready for the holiday season? Have you bought enough product to reach the sales goals you want to attain? Are your displays fresh? Have you properly trained your employees? If you have failed at any of these efforts, then it will not be the consumer's fault, the recession, the political atmosphere or anything else that caused it. I t will be your fault because you didn't take the responsibility to prepare for a great fourth quarter.
Now, to be fair, all my comments are related to the country as a whole. If you live in an area that has been particularly hard hit with unemployment, naturally you will have to take that into consideration. The real point here is to plan for the best possible outcome because then you have the chance to attain it. Otherwise, it will never happen.
What else is going on in our world, outside of our industry, that could and should affect consumers going into this holiday season?
Although housing is still in trouble, in most months of 2010, sales of existing homes have been far above last year, and inventory is finally starting to fall.
All polls tracking consumer confidence show that it is starting to rise again and people are psychologically feeling the worst is behind us.
Finally, it is always sad when I see anyone go out of business for any reason. However, the fact is that there are fewer stores in America today than there were two years ago, both chain stores and independents, so those of you who are still out there following your passion have a lot more people to sell to than you did before.
I'm looking forward to seeing a lot of you at January 2011 markets to hear great stories once again of how pleasantly surprised you were at your fourth quarter sales. Just don't leave any money on the table this time, OK guys?
Good selling!
We would love your feedback!
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Happy ending
Feb 9, 2012 -
NRF forecasts holiday retail sales increase of 2.8%
Oct 11, 2011 -
C&F Enterprises doubles Las Vegas showroom space
Mar 14, 2012
JC Penney's ‘Home World' to include Michael Graves, Jonathan Adler, Terence Conran, Bodum, Martha Stewart
Home decor is big business at online retailer Hautelook.com
Pier 1 Imports announces three-year growth plan, fiscal 2012 results
Dallas Market Center announces showroom expansions
Macef International Home Show set for September
