Holiday sales expected to rise 3.9%; Online sales 13-15%
Home Accents Today Staff -- Home Accents Today, 10/3/2013 3:40:48 PM
The National Retail Federation expects sales in the months of November and December to increase 3.9% over 2012, to $602.1 billion. The forecast is higher than the 10-year average of 3.3% and 2012's 3.5% actual holiday season sales growth.
Shop.org expects online sales in November and December to grow between 13-15% over last holiday season to as much as $82 billion. Shop.org calculates sales based on government data including consumer confidence, consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases. The U.S. Dept. of Commerce announced that final Q4 2012 e-commerce sales increased 15.5%.
According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 720,000 and 780,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with the actual 720,500 they hired in 2012, which was a 13% year-over-year increase from 2011.
"Overall, retailers are optimistic for the 2013 holiday season, hoping political debates over government spending and the debt ceiling do not erase any economic progress we've already made," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "Our forecast is also somewhat hinging on Congress and the Administration's actions over the next 45 days; without action, we face the potential of losing the faith Americans have in their leaders, and the pursuant decrease in consumer confidence."
"The economy continues to expand, albeit at an unspectacular pace," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. "In order for consumers to turn out this holiday season, we need to see steady improvements in income and job growth, as well as an agreement from Washington that puts the economic recovery first. Our forecast leaves room for improvement, while at the same time provides a very realistic look at the state of the American consumer and their confidence in our economy."
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