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Biggest sales increases predicted for lamps

Up 34% by 2001; 20+% increases seen for area rugs, accent tables and pillows

Staff -- Home Accents Today, 3/1/2007

Area rugs, Accent tables, Lamps and Decorative pillows are all expected to have healthy sales growth between 2006 and 2011 according to the latest estimates by New York-based Easy Analytic Software Inc.

Together the four categories will top $24 billion in sales in 2011 if EASI's projections are on track. The fastest sales growth is projected for area rugs, expected to increase by 34%, reaching $7.22 billion, up from $5.39 billion in 2006.

Lamps and accent tables will both grow by nearly 29%. EASI projects lamp sales of $9.89 billion in 2011, up from $7.67 billion last year. Accent table sales will reach $5.88, up from $4.57 billion. The slowest growth is projected for pillows, 24%, reaching $1.38 billion, up from $1.11 billion.

EASI's estimates factor in projected demographic shifts such as age and income, but doesn't look at where the economy's going.

Following expected demographic shifts, the fastest sales growth is projected for the West and the South. Of the 16 states expected to have above average sales growth in all four product categories, 11 are in the West and four are in the South. Only Delaware in the Northeast is expected to have sales growth above the national average in all four categories and no Midwest state has that distinction.

Six of the nation's more than 900 metro markets will have sales growth topping 50% in one or more product categories according to EASI forecasters. At the head of the class is Palm Coast, Fla., where sales growth for accent tables, lamps and area rugs is projected to hit 60% or more, and pillows only slightly less, 56%. Palm Coast is the only one of the half dozen super-growth metros considered a "micropolitan" area by the Office of Management and Budget, the federal agency in charge of such designations. The remainder all have core populations of 50,000 or more, the agency's dividing line between small and large metro areas.

The New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner metropolitan area should see tremendous growth in home accents categories as it continues to recover from the devastation of Hurricane Katrina.

Hottest Markets These markets are expected to see growth of at least 50% in one or more home accent categories, 2006–2011
MARKETCATEGORYPROJECTED GROWTH
Palm Coast, Fla.accent tables64.1%
lamps62.6%
area rugs60.4%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, La.area rugs58.1%
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.area rugs57.9%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, La.accent tables56.8%
Palm Coast, Fla.pillows55.9%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, La.lamps55.9%
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.area rugs51.3%
St. George, Utaharea rugs51.3%
accent pillows50.4%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, La.pillows50.4%
Austin-Round Rock, Texasarea rugs50.1%

Sales by State Accent tables
in millions
STATE2006 ESTIMATED2011 PROJECTEDPERCENT CHANGE
Alabama$71.6$89.725%
Alaska10.213.129
Arizona87.3121.839
Arkansas42.154.028
California503.2651.329
Colorado75.398.531
Connecticut59.274.426
Delaware14.018.331
District of Columbia10.612.214
Florida282.7383.636
Georgia139.3185.433
Hawaii17.622.830
Idaho20.527.634
Illinois197.1249.126
Indiana99.8127.328
Iowa47.459.726
Kansas43.354.726
Kentucky65.383.127
Louisiana61.279.530
Maine21.827.928
Maryland94.1120.428
Massachusetts107.7131.822
Michigan161.6203.426
Minnesota84.6108.028
Mississippi42.654.027
Missouri92.6117.627
Montana14.418.528
Nebraska28.035.627
Nevada37.554.245
New Hampshire22.228.629
New Jersey139.5175.726
New Mexico25.933.630
New York295.1364.724
North Carolina138.9183.632
North Dakota10.112.422
Ohio185.7231.625
Oklahoma53.667.927
Oregon56.974.431
Pennsylvania199.9249.725
Rhode Island17.722.326
South Carolina66.987.330
South Dakota11.815.027
Tennessee94.6121.729
Texas323.5429.633
Utah31.942.232
Vermont10.313.026
Virginia125.2162.430
Washington100.7131.030
West Virginia28.135.125
Wisconsin90.3115.328
Wyoming8.110.327
Total$4,569.5$5,884.829%
Note: States in bold are projected to grow accent tables sales faster than the national average.
Source: Easy Analytic Software and Home Accents Today market research

Area rugs
in millions
STATE2006 ESTIMATED2011 PROJECTEDPERCENT CHANGE
Alabama$73.6$94.629%
Alaska12.617.035
Arizona101.9148.746
Arkansas41.954.530
California672.0912.636
Colorado92.7127.938
Connecticut83.1107.730
Delaware16.722.736
District of Columbia13.615.212
Florida326.3456.340
Georgia155.2220.342
Hawaii22.631.238
Idaho21.529.638
Illinois234.6322.838
Indiana107.8143.833
Iowa49.764.329
Kansas47.863.433
Kentucky67.887.729
Louisiana62.082.132
Maine23.129.528
Maryland124.6162.230
Massachusetts145.8181.524
Michigan183.4249.136
Minnesota100.9132.231
Mississippi41.053.029
Missouri99.3129.630
Montana14.518.829
Nebraska30.239.330
Nevada43.065.352
New Hampshire27.835.628
New Jersey200.1262.231
New Mexico28.938.834
New York377.1483.028
North Carolina147.8204.738
North Dakota10.312.522
Ohio205.1264.429
Oklahoma54.770.829
Oregon62.586.338
Pennsylvania228.0291.528
Rhode Island21.126.727
South Carolina69.092.434
South Dakota12.115.628
Tennessee100.0131.932
Texas378.7535.241
Utah36.249.737
Vermont11.514.425
Virginia156.6208.433
Washington116.4159.537
West Virginia27.634.826
Wisconsin99.0130.131
Wyoming8.510.827
Total$5,388.0$7,221.934%
Note: States in bold are projected to grow area rugs sales faster than the national average.
Source: Easy Analytic Software and Home Accents Today market research

By Region

South

Percent of Sales by Region, 2006
area rugs34.2%
accent tables35.9%
lamps35.5%
pillows35.8%

West

Percent of Sales by Region, 2006
area rugs22.9%
accent tables21.7%
lamps22.4%
pillows22.4%

Sales by State Pillows
in millions
STATE2006 ESTIMATED2011 PROJECTEDPERCENT CHANGE
Alabama$17.2$20.519%
Alaska2.43.025
Arizona22.129.634
Arkansas10.412.622
California129.0162.826
Colorado18.223.026
Connecticut14.017.122
Delaware3.24.126
District of Columbia2.52.711
Florida70.090.930
Georgia32.541.628
Hawaii4.65.726
Idaho5.06.528
Illinois47.257.722
Indiana23.728.822
Iowa11.413.619
Kansas10.512.621
Kentucky15.919.321
Louisiana14.718.224
Maine5.36.422
Maryland21.426.523
Massachusetts25.630.419
Michigan38.146.221
Minnesota19.824.222
Mississippi10.212.321
Missouri22.226.921
Montana3.64.422
Nebraska6.78.121
Nevada9.212.738
New Hampshire5.16.323
New Jersey33.340.923
New Mexico7.29.026
New York73.087.420
North Carolina33.141.726
North Dakota2.52.916
Ohio43.952.319
Oklahoma13.516.421
Oregon14.017.425
Pennsylvania47.957.119
Rhode Island4.35.221
South Carolina15.819.624
South Dakota2.93.521
Tennessee22.727.823
Texas82.5105.828
Utah7.69.627
Vermont2.42.920
Virginia29.236.425
Washington24.230.325
West Virginia7.08.319
Wisconsin21.325.922
Wyoming2.02.421
Total$1,112.0$1,377.624%
Note: States in bold are projected to grow pillows sales faster than the national average.
Source: Easy Analytic Software and Home Accents Today market research

Lamps
in millions
STATE2006 ESTIMATED2011 PROJECTEDPERCENT CHANGE
Alabama$116.4$144.824%
Alaska17.222.330
Arizona150.3209.640
Arkansas69.187.727
California893.11,162.930
Colorado126.9167.032
Connecticut100.0126.226
Delaware22.930.131
District of Columbia17.019.414
Florida477.2644.935
Georgia225.4300.533
Hawaii32.141.730
Idaho34.045.634
Illinois328.6417.427
Indiana163.1208.228
Iowa77.697.426
Kansas71.690.627
Kentucky107.4135.626
Louisiana99.6128.529
Maine36.045.727
Maryland154.5198.228
Massachusetts181.6222.923
Michigan265.5335.026
Minnesota139.5178.628
Mississippi68.786.326
Missouri151.8191.826
Montana24.030.527
Nebraska46.058.327
Nevada63.391.845
New Hampshire36.747.329
New Jersey237.8301.327
New Mexico47.762.030
New York505.3625.824
North Carolina225.6297.332
North Dakota16.620.121
Ohio303.7378.125
Oklahoma90.2113.626
Oregon94.9124.031
Pennsylvania331.1412.124
Rhode Island29.937.626
South Carolina107.9140.030
South Dakota19.624.726
Tennessee154.2197.128
Texas559.5744.333
Utah52.369.733
Vermont17.021.325
Virginia205.5266.730
Washington168.3219.931
West Virginia46.757.523
Wisconsin148.1189.328
Wyoming13.517.127
Total$7,672.0$9,886.429%
Note: States in bold are projected to grow lamp sales faster than the national average.
Source: Easy Analytic Software and Home Accents Today market research

By Region

Midwest

Percent of Sales by Region, 2006
area rugs21.9%
accent tables23.0%
lamps22.6%
pillows22.5%

Northeast

Percent of Sales by Region, 2006
area rugs21.1%
accent tables19.4%
lamps19.5%
pillows19.3%

 
Methodology

Home Accents Today market research worked with Easy Analytic Software Inc., to develop sales estimates and projections for U.S. accent furniture, area rugs, lamps, pillows and wall decor. This month's issue focuses on accent furniture, area rugs, lamps, pillows. Wall décor figures can be found in the February issue.

2006 estimates are based on data available through November 2006 from the Department of Commerce, the International Trade Commission, sales estimates from manufacturers and retailers and discussions with industry executives, and are subject to revision as additional data become available.

The statisticians at EASI matched demographic data (such as, age and income) from the Bureau of the Census, the Department of Justice, the National Center for Education Statistics and the Department of Labor using a series of statistical models to develop estimates by metro markets.

Projections for 2011 are designed to forecast the changes that statistically adjust for household income, age by race and sex, group quarter population and births and deaths, along with other forecasting factors. Spending forecasts assume a national rate of inflation that does not vary from one location to another. Changes in economic conditions are not part of the equations.

Sales estimates and projections for the nations more than 900 metropolitan areas are available in a series of Product Potential and Market Potential Reports on the Home Accents Today Research Store.

More Reports Available

Home Accents Today, with sister publication Furniture/Today and Easy Analytic Software, has also prepared sales estimates and projections for individual product categories for all of the nation's 934 metropolitan areas in a series of Product Potential Reports.

Major metros, called Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population. Small metros, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, have at least one urban cluster with a population of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000. Both include adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core measured by commuting ties. The designations are mandated by the Office of Management and Budget.

Each Product Potential Report gives estimated 2006 sales and projected 2011 sales figures for each specific product (for example, area rugs or master bedroom). In addition to home accent categories, Product Potential Reports are available for 17 furniture products : Master bedroom; Youth, other adult bedroom furniture; Casual dining; Dining room furniture; Entertainment furniture; Curios; Occasional tables; Desks and other home office furniture; Stationary sofas; Stationary chairs; Reclining chairs; Swivel, glider rockers; Motion sofas; Sofa sleepers and futons; Mattress, boxspring; Infant furniture, and Outdoor furniture.

Also available are Market Potential reports, available for more than 900 metropolitan areas. Each report gives the retail spending estimated in 2006 for each of the product categories listed above, along with projected spending in 2011. Armed with this information, retailers can calculate their own share of market in their trading area.

In addition to home furnishings spending estimates, Market Potential Reports also give demographic information on the metro area, including breakdowns by age, income, race and ethnicity, showing how these are projected to change over time.

Both Product Potential Reports and Market Potential Reports may be ordered online at homeaccentstoday.com (go to the Research Store).

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