Area rug, lamps sales expected to grow by 2012
By Kay Anderson -- Home Accents Today, 3/1/2008
Both area rugs and lamps will have double-digit sales growth over the next five years according to projections by New York-based Easy Analytic Software Inc.
Statisticians at EASI project sales of area rugs will increase by 13.8% between 2007 and 2012, while sales of lamps will increase by 16.1% during the same time period.
For both products, the fastest sales growth is expected to come in the West and the South. More than one-half of the metropolitan areas in the West are expected to exceed the projected national growth rate for sales of both lamps and area rugs. In the South, nearly one-third of metro areas are expected to exceed the national average growth rate for area rugs and more than one-fourth are expected to exceed the national average growth rate for lamp sales.
In the Midwest, two major metropolitan markets are expected to grow lamp sales by more than 20% in the next five years: Sioux Falls, S.D., and Des Moines, Iowa. In contrast, no major metro markets in the Midwest are expected to grow area rug sales by more than 20%. Dover, Del., is the only major metro area in the Northeast expected to exceed the 20% growth mark for both lamps and area rugs.
In the South and West, on the other hand, all 10 of the major metro areas projected to have the fastest sales growth are expected to grow lamp sales by more than 25%. In fact, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., Raleigh-Cary, N.C., St. George, Utah, and Bend, Ore., should see lamp sales grow by more than 30% according to EASI projections.
Area rug sales are also expected to exceed 20% growth in all 10 of the fastest growing metros in the South and the West. However, only St. George, Utah, and Bend, Ore., located in the West, are expected to see growth reach more than 30% over the next five years.
As a group, the nation's 10 biggest markets accounted for just more than one-fourth of sales of both area rugs and lamps last year. While this won't change in 2012, the growth patterns among the top 10 markets will, if EASI's projections hold.
Only three of the super metros are expected to exceed 20% in sales growth for both lamps and area rugs: Dallas-Fort Worth, Greater Houston and Greater Atlanta. The slowest growth among the super metros is projected for the greater Boston and greater New York markets.
Overall, the nation's 361 large metros (those with a core population of 50,000 or more) are expected to see area rug sales increase by 14.5% by 2012, while area rug sales in small metro areas are expected to increase at a slower pace, 11.1%.
Lamp sales are also expected to pick up at a faster pace in large metros than in small ones. Large metros are expected to increase lamp sales by 16.9%, while small metros are expected to see an increase of 12.9%.
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | PERCENT CHANGE | 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | PERCENT CHANGE | |
| Area rugs | Lamps | |||||
| New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. | 349.5 | 383.0 | 9.6% | $521.4 | $582.6 | 11.7% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. | 203.2 | 227.6 | 12.0% | 312.0 | 356.6 | 14.3% |
| Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. | 168.3 | 189.7 | 12.7% | 252.4 | 290.9 | 15.3% |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. | 111.0 | 123.3 | 11.2% | 161.5 | 183.5 | 13.6% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas | 101.2 | 123.9 | 22.5% | 157.4 | 197.2 | 25.3% |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W. Va. | 99.1 | 114.5 | 15.4% | 156.6 | 184.8 | 18.0% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, Fla. | 106.9 | 123.0 | 15.1% | 148.3 | 173.8 | 17.3% |
| Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, Texas | 89.7 | 109.6 | 22.2% | 139.4 | 174.0 | 24.8% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. | 87.4 | 107.2 | 22.6% | 137.0 | 171.1 | 24.9% |
| Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass.-N.H. | 88.7 | 96.5 | 8.8% | 130.8 | 145.4 | 11.2% |
| Total biggest markets | 1,405.0 | 1,598.3 | 13.8% | 2,116.6 | 2,459.8 | 16.2% |
| Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Home Accents Today market research | ||||||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | PERCENT CHANGE | 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | PERCENT CHANGE | |
| Area rugs | Lamps | |||||
| Palm Coast, Fla. | 2.0 | 3.0 | 46.6% | 2.6 | 3.9 | 49.8% |
| St. George, Utah | 2.2 | 2.9 | 35.7% | 2.8 | 3.9 | 38.1% |
| The Villages, Fla. | 1.6 | 2.1 | 34.6% | 1.9 | 2.6 | 36.6% |
| Pahrump, Nev. | 0.9 | 1.2 | 33.1% | 1.2 | 1.6 | 35.1% |
| Heber, Utah | 0.3 | 0.4 | 31.5% | 0.4 | 0.6 | 33.8% |
| Bend, Ore. | 2.9 | 3.7 | 30.8% | 4.1 | 5.4 | 33.0% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. | 13.6 | 17.7 | 29.9% | 17.7 | 23.4 | 32.7% |
| Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. | 31.2 | 40.3 | 29.3% | 46.7 | 61.7 | 32.1% |
| Greeley, Colo. | 3.9 | 5.0 | 29.0% | 5.8 | 7.6 | 31.8% |
| Raleigh-Cary, N.C. | 18.2 | 23.3 | 28.4% | 28.3 | 37.1 | 31.3% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. | 72.9 | 93.1 | 27.7% | 106.3 | 138.7 | 30.5% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. | 62.3 | 78.9 | 26.6% | 91.4 | 118.2 | 29.3% |
| Prescott, Ariz. | 4.6 | 5.8 | 26.6% | 6.0 | 7.8 | 28.9% |
| Cedar City, Utah | 0.6 | 0.7 | 26.3% | 0.8 | 1.0 | 28.7% |
| Gainesville, Ga. | 2.8 | 3.5 | 25.9% | 4.1 | 5.3 | 28.6% |
| Boise City-Nampa, Idaho | 9.7 | 12.2 | 25.9% | 14.2 | 18.2 | 28.5% |
| Austin-Round Rock, Texas | 26.3 | 33.1 | 25.9% | 41.2 | 52.9 | 28.4% |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 4.7 | 5.9 | 25.7% | 6.6 | 8.5 | 28.0% |
| Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, Fla. | 9.0 | 11.2 | 25.0% | 11.6 | 14.8 | 27.8% |
| Naples-Marco Island, Fla. | 7.5 | 9.4 | 24.9% | 10.0 | 12.8 | 27.7% |
| Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Ariz. | 4.0 | 5.0 | 25.7% | 5.2 | 6.6 | 27.7% |
| Ocala, Fla. | 7.1 | 8.9 | 26.4% | 8.9 | 11.3 | 27.7% |
| Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C. | 28.6 | 35.7 | 24.7% | 43.5 | 55.4 | 27.5% |
| Bozeman, Mont. | 1.4 | 1.8 | 25.4% | 2.1 | 2.7 | 27.3% |
| Coeur d'Alene, Idaho | 2.3 | 2.9 | 25.1% | 3.3 | 4.2 | 27.1% |
| Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Home Accents Today market research Behind the numbers Home Accents Today market research worked with Easy Analytic Software Inc. to develop sales estimates and projections for lamps, area rug sales, wall decor and top-of-bed sales. Sales and estimates for wall decor were given in the February issue. 2007 sales estimates for each product category are based on data available through August 2007 and are subject to revision as additional data become available. Estimates are based on information from the Department of Commerce, the International Trade Commission, sales estimates from manufacturers and retailers, Home Accents Today's Consumer Buying Trends Survey, as well as Furniture/Today's Consumer Buying Trends Surveys and Furniture Store Performance Report and discussions with industry executives and analysts. Segment figures were aggregated by Home Accents Today and statisticians at EASI. EASI matched demographic data (such as age and income) gathered by our Consumer Buying Trends surveys against other data sources such as the Bureau of the Census, the Department of Justice, the National Center for Education Statistics and the Department of Labor. EASI then uses a series of statistical models to develop estimates by metro markets. EASI's highly accurate models are regression curves based upon a variety of factors designed to forecast changes that include growth and the interrelationship of variables. Projections for 2012 are designed to forecast the changes that statistically adjust for household income, age by race and sex, group quarter population and births and deaths, along with other forecasting factors. Spending forecasts assume a national rate of inflation that does not vary from one location to another. Data are given for Core-Based Statistical Areas, defined as a geographic entity consisting of the county or counties containing one or more cores (urbanized areas or settlement clusters or both) that together have at least 10,000 population, plus adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration with the core(s) measured through commuting patterns. Within this broad definition, large metros, called Metropolitan Statistical Areas, have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population. Small metros, called Micropolitan Statistical Areas, have at least one urban cluster with a population of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000. Both designations include adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core measured by commuting ties. The designations are mandated by the Office of Management and Budget and are used by government agencies for statistical reporting purposes. Additional reports available Sales estimations and projections for individual product categories are available in a series of Product Potential Reports. Each Product Potential Report gives estimated 2007 sales and projected 2012 sales figures for each specific product for 934 metropolitan areas. Each report also provides state-level data for the product. Home accents products covered in separate reports are area rugs, lamps, top-of-bed and wall decor. In addition, reports are available for specific furniture products including master bedroom, youth and other adult bedroom furniture, casual dining, dining room furniture, entertainment furniture, curios, occasional tables, desks, other home office furniture, stationary sofas/sofa-sleepers, stationary chairs, reclining chairs, swivel/glider rockers and motion sofas. A report on toys, dolls and games is also available. Market Potential Reports on each of the nation's 934 metropolitan areas are also available. These give sales estimates and projections for sales of each of the product categories in a given market, plus additional estimates and projections of pertinent market data such as population, household sizes, number of households by age and income. |
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| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | PERCENT CHANGE | 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | PERCENT CHANGE | |
| Area rugs | Lamps | |||||
| Alabama | 84.0 | 93.5 | 11.4% | 120.6 | 136.6 | 13.2% |
| Alaska | 10.8 | 12.5 | 16.6% | 17.1 | 20.4 | 18.9% |
| Arizona | 112.3 | 140.4 | 25.0% | 161.3 | 205.7 | 27.5% |
| Arkansas | 51.4 | 57.8 | 12.5% | 72.0 | 82.3 | 14.2% |
| California | 605.8 | 694.9 | 14.7% | 914.3 | 1,070.9 | 17.1% |
| Colorado | 86.9 | 101.6 | 17.0% | 130.6 | 156.4 | 19.7% |
| Connecticut | 70.5 | 78.3 | 11.0% | 102.7 | 116.5 | 13.4% |
| Delaware | 16.2 | 18.9 | 16.6% | 23.6 | 28.2 | 19.1% |
| District of Columbia | 12.3 | 12.8 | 4.2% | 19.0 | 20.1 | 5.7% |
| Florida | 368.0 | 437.6 | 18.9% | 504.3 | 610.7 | 21.1% |
| Georgia | 159.1 | 189.0 | 18.8% | 241.2 | 292.1 | 21.1% |
| Hawaii | 20.9 | 24.4 | 16.4% | 32.7 | 39.1 | 19.5% |
| Idaho | 24.8 | 29.7 | 19.6% | 35.5 | 43.3 | 21.8% |
| Illinois | 233.5 | 260.3 | 11.5% | 341.8 | 389.6 | 14.0% |
| Indiana | 116.0 | 130.2 | 12.2% | 166.3 | 190.6 | 14.6% |
| Iowa | 57.4 | 63.3 | 10.2% | 79.4 | 89.3 | 12.5% |
| Kansas | 51.5 | 57.2 | 11.0% | 73.6 | 83.6 | 13.6% |
| Kentucky | 77.5 | 86.5 | 11.6% | 110.0 | 124.7 | 13.4% |
| Louisiana | 72.7 | 80.5 | 10.7% | 105.9 | 119.1 | 12.4% |
| Maine | 25.7 | 28.4 | 10.5% | 35.7 | 40.1 | 12.2% |
| Maryland | 104.1 | 117.8 | 13.2% | 157.1 | 181.7 | 15.7% |
| Massachusetts | 128.3 | 139.7 | 8.9% | 186.0 | 206.8 | 11.2% |
| Michigan | 187.4 | 206.2 | 10.1% | 271.3 | 305.0 | 12.4% |
| Minnesota | 96.8 | 109.0 | 12.6% | 140.1 | 161.3 | 15.1% |
| Mississippi | 49.1 | 54.7 | 11.4% | 70.8 | 79.9 | 12.9% |
| Missouri | 109.7 | 122.3 | 11.5% | 155.4 | 176.5 | 13.6% |
| Montana | 17.5 | 19.7 | 12.3% | 24.7 | 28.1 | 14.1% |
| Nebraska | 33.1 | 36.9 | 11.5% | 46.6 | 53.2 | 14.1% |
| Nevada | 44.5 | 56.4 | 26.9% | 66.2 | 85.8 | 29.6% |
| New Hampshire | 25.0 | 28.5 | 13.8% | 36.3 | 42.1 | 16.2% |
| New Jersey | 167.0 | 186.6 | 11.8% | 245.5 | 280.7 | 14.4% |
| New Mexico | 33.6 | 38.7 | 15.0% | 49.2 | 57.6 | 17.2% |
| New York | 357.8 | 388.9 | 8.7% | 524.0 | 580.0 | 10.7% |
| North Carolina | 161.8 | 189.2 | 16.9% | 237.0 | 282.7 | 19.3% |
| North Dakota | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.5% | 16.7 | 18.3 | 9.6% |
| Ohio | 216.3 | 236.0 | 9.1% | 308.3 | 343.4 | 11.4% |
| Oklahoma | 65.1 | 72.5 | 11.3% | 93.5 | 106.1 | 13.5% |
| Oregon | 69.0 | 79.7 | 15.5% | 99.0 | 116.6 | 17.7% |
| Pennsylvania | 243.5 | 266.8 | 9.6% | 338.5 | 378.4 | 11.8% |
| Rhode Island | 20.7 | 22.5 | 8.5% | 29.3 | 32.4 | 10.6% |
| South Carolina | 77.2 | 88.9 | 15.2% | 112.6 | 132.0 | 17.2% |
| South Dakota | 14.4 | 16.0 | 11.2% | 20.0 | 22.6 | 13.3% |
| Tennessee | 110.7 | 125.9 | 13.7% | 159.6 | 184.7 | 15.7% |
| Texas | 390.5 | 464.4 | 18.9% | 582.9 | 708.6 | 21.6% |
| Utah | 37.2 | 44.3 | 19.1% | 54.9 | 66.7 | 21.5% |
| Vermont | 11.9 | 13.1 | 10.2% | 16.9 | 18.9 | 12.1% |
| Virginia | 141.5 | 162.3 | 14.7% | 211.5 | 247.8 | 17.2% |
| Washington | 117.6 | 136.6 | 16.1% | 173.5 | 205.7 | 18.6% |
| West Virginia | 35.1 | 37.9 | 8.0% | 47.9 | 52.4 | 9.5% |
| Wisconsin | 104.7 | 117.0 | 11.7% | 148.7 | 169.4 | 14.0% |
| Wyoming | 9.4 | 10.6 | 12.5% | 13.5 | 15.4 | 14.3% |
| Total | 5,450.0 | 6,200.0 | 13.8% | 7,925.0 | 9,200.0 | 16.1% |
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| AREA RUGS | |||
| 10 fastest-growing metros for area rugs | |||
| NORTHEAST | |||
| East Stroudsburg, Pa. | 2.9 | 3.6 | 22.8% |
| Dover, Del. | 2.6 | 3.2 | 22.6% |
| Seaford, Del. | 3.7 | 4.4 | 20.2% |
| Gettysburg, Pa. | 1.8 | 2.2 | 17.3% |
| York-Hanover, Pa. | 7.9 | 9.2 | 17.2% |
| Chambersburg, Pa. | 2.7 | 3.2 | 16.6% |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. | 15.9 | 18.5 | 16.2% |
| Concord, N.H. | 2.8 | 3.3 | 15.6% |
| Reading, Pa. | 7.7 | 8.9 | 15.5% |
| Willimantic, Conn. | 2.1 | 2.5 | 15.3% |
| SOUTH | |||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| Palm Coast, Fla. | 2.0 | 3.0 | 46.6% |
| The Villages, Fla. | 1.6 | 2.1 | 34.6% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. | 13.6 | 17.7 | 29.9% |
| Raleigh-Cary, N.C. | 18.2 | 23.3 | 28.4% |
| Ocala, Fla. | 7.1 | 8.9 | 26.4% |
| Gainesville, Ga. | 2.8 | 3.5 | 25.9% |
| Austin-Round Rock, Texas | 26.3 | 33.1 | 25.9% |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 4.7 | 5.9 | 25.7% |
| Picayune, Miss. | 1.0 | 1.2 | 25.0% |
| Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, Fla. | 9.0 | 11.2 | 25.0% |
| MIDWEST | |||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| Sioux Falls, S.D. | 3.9 | 4.7 | 20.0% |
| Des Moines, Iowa | 10.1 | 12.0 | 18.6% |
| Farmington, Mo. | 1.1 | 1.3 | 18.5% |
| Faribault-Northfield, Minn. | 1.1 | 1.3 | 17.5% |
| Springfield, Mo. | 7.6 | 8.9 | 17.2% |
| Rochester, Minn. | 3.4 | 3.9 | 17.0% |
| Indianapolis, Ind. | 30.8 | 36.0 | 16.8% |
| Whitewater, Wis. | 1.9 | 2.3 | 16.7% |
| Bloomington-Normal, Ill. | 3.0 | 3.5 | 16.2% |
| Columbia, Mo. | 2.8 | 3.2 | 16.2% |
| WEST | |||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| St. George, Utah | 2.2 | 2.9 | 35.7% |
| Pahrump, Nev. | 0.9 | 1.2 | 33.1% |
| Heber, Utah | 0.3 | 0.4 | 31.5% |
| Bend, Ore. | 2.9 | 3.7 | 30.8% |
| Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. | 31.2 | 40.3 | 29.3% |
| Greeley, Colo. | 3.9 | 5.0 | 29.0% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. | 72.9 | 93.1 | 27.7% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. | 62.3 | 78.9 | 26.6% |
| Prescott, Ariz. | 4.6 | 5.8 | 26.6% |
| Cedar City, Utah | 0.6 | 0.7 | 26.3% |
| LAMPS | |||
| 10 fastest-growing metros for lamps | |||
| NORTHEAST | |||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| East Stroudsburg, Pa. | 4.2 | 5.2 | 25.5% |
| Dover, Del. | 3.8 | 4.7 | 24.7% |
| Seaford, Del. | 5.0 | 6.1 | 22.2% |
| York-Hanover, Pa. | 11.1 | 13.3 | 19.6% |
| Gettysburg, Pa. | 2.5 | 3.0 | 19.4% |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. | 22.2 | 26.4 | 19.0% |
| Chambersburg, Pa. | 3.7 | 4.4 | 18.6% |
| Reading, Pa. | 10.7 | 12.7 | 18.1% |
| Concord, N.H. | 4.1 | 4.8 | 18.0% |
| Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y. | 17.6 | 20.7 | 17.7% |
| SOUTH | |||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| Palm Coast, Fla. | 2.6 | 3.9 | 49.8% |
| The Villages, Fla. | 1.9 | 2.6 | 36.6% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. | 17.7 | 23.4 | 32.7% |
| Raleigh-Cary, N.C. | 28.3 | 37.1 | 31.3% |
| Gainesville, Ga. | 4.1 | 5.3 | 28.6% |
| Austin-Round Rock, Texas | 41.2 | 52.9 | 28.4% |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 6.6 | 8.5 | 28.0% |
| Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, Fla. | 11.6 | 14.8 | 27.8% |
| Naples-Marco Island, Fla. | 10.0 | 12.8 | 27.7% |
| Ocala, Fla. | 8.9 | 11.3 | 27.7% |
| MIDWEST | |||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| Sioux Falls, S.D. | 5.6 | 6.9 | 22.6% |
| Des Moines, Iowa | 14.8 | 17.9 | 21.4% |
| Farmington, Mo. | 1.5 | 1.8 | 20.0% |
| Faribault-Northfield, Minn. | 1.6 | 1.9 | 20.0% |
| Rochester, Minn. | 4.9 | 5.9 | 19.7% |
| Indianapolis, Ind. | 45.8 | 54.8 | 19.6% |
| Springfield, Mo. | 10.7 | 12.8 | 19.2% |
| Whitewater, Wis. | 2.8 | 3.3 | 19.0% |
| Rockford, Ill. | 9.2 | 11.0 | 18.9% |
| Bloomington-Normal, Ill. | 4.5 | 5.3 | 18.8% |
| WEST | |||
| 2007 estimated | 2012 projected | percent change | |
| St. George, Utah | 2.8 | 3.9 | 38.1% |
| Pahrump, Nev. | 1.2 | 1.6 | 35.1% |
| Heber, Utah | 0.4 | 0.6 | 33.8% |
| Bend, Ore. | 4.1 | 5.4 | 33.0% |
| Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. | 46.7 | 61.7 | 32.1% |
| Greeley, Colo. | 5.8 | 7.6 | 31.8% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. | 106.3 | 138.7 | 30.5% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. | 91.4 | 118.2 | 29.3% |
| Prescott, Ariz. | 6.0 | 7.8 | 28.9% |
| Cedar City, Utah | 0.8 | 1.0 | 28.7% |
| Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Home Accents Today market research | |||
