Susan Dickenson

October retail sales results; TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape survey reveals some shoppers' holiday plans

Retail same-store sales declined 0.6% in October for about 40 retailers reporting monthly results today, TNS Retail Forward reported. October’s result is down from a 1.3% sales-weighted composite increase reported last month and down from the 1.7% increase reported in October of 2007. October’s results were led by weak positive results at warehouse clubs and discount department stores.  

“Shoppers are focusing on necessities and on finding the best deals as they cut back their spending.  And that will continue through the holidays,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at TNS Retail Forward.
 

The weak results are foreshadowing weak holiday spending plans reported by shoppers in the latest TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape survey fielded in October after the federal financial bailout passed Congress. Half of shoppers (50%) surveyed then said they plan to spend a lot less or somewhat less on holiday gifts this year compared with last year, much higher number than the 31% of shoppers that planned to spend less at the same point a year ago. Seven percent of shoppers plan to spend a lot more or somewhat more on holiday gifts, down from 13% that planned to spend more a year ago.

Discount stores, supercenters and warehouse clubs are among the few retail channels that are not being cut from the list of planned stops for holiday shopping. Otherwise, shoppers are narrowing the number of store types where they plan to shop. Other lines of trade offering savings—warehouse clubs, factory outlet stores and small-format value stores—are also retaining their popularity with shoppers.

Fewer shoppers are planning to buy via non-store channels—online and catalogs—although free shipping deals could be enough incentive to shift shoppers’ plans. Department stores and other apparel-related channels will face challenges as significantly fewer shoppers plan to shop those channels this year.

Among the categories, exceptions to planned shopping cutbacks include video games, video gaming systems or related accessories and home décor or home-related furnishings and plant/wreaths/flowers.  Gift cards, clothing, toys and books remain the most popular gift categories in the same order as last year, but all face a significantly smaller share of shoppers planning to make purchases in those categories.

October, 2008, retail sales results compared to October, 2007, for several chains and discounters follow:

Stein Mart - October retail sales down 12%

Bon-Ton Stores - down 10.7%

Neiman Marcus Group - down 25.3%

Duckwall-Alco stores - up 7.3%

Target - down 0.6%

Wal-mart US - up 5.1%

Wal-mart excluding Sams Club - up 5.2%%

BJ's Wholesale Club - up 11.5%

Costco - up 1.7%

Sams Club - up 4.4%

Macy’s - down 6.9%

Kohl’s - down 4.8%

TJX Companies, Inc. - down 2%

J.C. Penney - down 11.8%

Posted by Susan Dickenson on November 6, 2008 | Comments (0)